By Matthew Green and Maryanne Murray.
This story originally appeared in Reuters www.reuters.com and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration committed to strengthening coverage of the climate story.
One day, perhaps not so far into the future, people might look back on the disruption caused by the coronavirus as a prelude to the bigger shocks that a rapidly warming world had in store. If left unchecked, rising greenhouse gas emissions threaten to unleash a new wave of crises as harvests fail, seas rise and ecosystems collapse.
In the pause forced by the pandemic, the human race has reached a cross-roads: return to business as usual, or try something new. Darkly humorous, but often speaking hard truths, an outpouring of memes since the lockdowns started has offered a glimpse into what's bubbling beneath the surface of our collective psyche.
As an Earth Day experiment, Reuters decided to stand in the shoes of an Apocaloptimist, defined by the Urban Dictionary as somebody who knows how bad things are, but who nevertheless believes they could still turn out okay. Because if coronavirus has taught us one lesson, it's that the world can change in a heartbeat.
Science is Back in Fashion
For years, some fossil fuel companies reportedly spent millions of dollars to undermine climate science, making it harder to mobilize public support for cutting emissions. The result: The toll of death and destruction caused by climate breakdown could be much greater than it would have been had the world acted sooner.
Something similar has happened with the coronavirus. Chinese police warned Dr. Li Wenliang, who was hailed a hero for raising the alarm about the coronavirus, to keep quiet in the early days of the outbreak. He later died of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus.
In the United States, President Donald Trump has drawn widespread criticism for initially downplaying the severity of the outbreak. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has proved such a reassuring figure, by contrast, that a petition to declare him "world's sexiest man" has taken off.
With the pandemic providing a crash course in the value of evidence-based policy, might voters be more inclined to demand their leaders listen to climate scientists and experts in preserving threatened species?
The Catch
People's idea of what constitutes sound science often has more to do with their political leanings than a clear-eyed analysis of data. In any case, the human tragedy of the pandemic has eclipsed fears over the gradual shutdown of the Earth’s life support systems, at least for now.
Major summits on climate change and biodiversity that had been supposed to turn 2020 into a “superyear” for nature have been pushed back to 2021, with no new dates yet fixed.
FURTHER READING
The Conversation: The age of stability is over, and coronavirus is just the beginning
openDemocracy: To get through this crisis, we must learn how to combine expertise with democracy
Desmog: Climate science deniers downplayed COVID-19
Professor Katharine Hayhoe @KHayhoe on links between climate change and COVID-19
Communities Are Coming Together
In the Chinese city of Wuhan, volunteers formed a community fleet to ferry health workers when public transport was suspended. In India, young people organized food for laborers who go hungry if they can’t work. In Britain, the United States, Spain and elsewhere, volunteers have rallied to provide meals to hospital staff. There are countless other examples of people coming together to organize mutual support without waiting for a permission slip from their governments.
This mass exercise in grassroots resilience building could foster the sense of agency communities will need to cope with the impacts of climate change - whether by forming local projects to grow food, supply renewable energy or support the vulnerable.
The Catch
The virus is serving to exacerbate existing inequalities, hitting the poor and vulnerable much harder. Governments have exploited pandemic responses to undermine human rights, such as freedom of assembly; enforce draconian quarantines, or expand digital surveillance.
FURTHER READING
Reuters: Feeding Spain's 'hero' medics for free, caterers and couriers team up
Reuters: Captain Tom raises millions, and the spirits of a nation
The Guardian: A zombie love story
The Lancet: COVID-19 exacerbating inequalities in the US
The Alternative UK: Politics is Broken: Here's the Alternative
Questioning the Mantra of Endless Growth
Suddenly, the first priority of governments is no longer economic growth - it’s saving lives. A vanguard of paradigm-smashing economists have long been making the case that the endless pursuit of ever-faster growth on a finite planet is a recipe for self-destruction. By hitting a pause button on business as usual, the pandemic has created space for deeper reflection on whether economic life could be reorganized to serve what really matters: a sense of security, family, connection, community, opportunities for creativity and self-expression.
Some nations are already experimenting. New Zealand, Scotland and Iceland have each taken steps to integrate a broader concept of “well-being” into their economic policy-making. Undaunted by the pandemic, the Dutch capital, Amsterdam, has pushed ahead with plans to retool its economy in line with “doughnut economics” - a new way of thinking about how economies can support good lives within the means of the planet.
The Catch
With the world economy facing its greatest shock since the Great Depression - and countless jobs, businesses and livelihoods disappearing overnight - talk of post-growth economics can sound like magical thinking. Governments are desperately working to crank the machine back up - not install a new operating system to try to boost happiness levels.
FURTHER READING
Reuters:'New economics' - the way to save the planet?
Resilience: Pandemic response requires post-growth economic thinking
Wellbeing Economy Alliance: What is a wellbeing economy?
Video: Herman Daly and Kate Raworth on pandemic-resistant economies
Video: Economics & Coronavirus with Ann Pettifor, Paul Mason and Molly Scott Cato
Was All That Flying Really Necessary?
Flights were grounded, and the world didn’t end. As working life adapts to lockdown and seemingly endless video calls, some people are finding that hopping on planes for face-to-face meetings, ski trips or trade shows wasn’t so essential after all. With millions of people undergoing an enforced experiment in working from home, the daily commute might also start to seem like an anachronism.
Plenty of research has shown that more efficient public transport, vehicle sharing, more cycling and other innovations could play a big role in helping societies to embrace a low-carbon future. The enforced pause could start to make what once seemed like utopian visions look more like common sense.
The Catch
Airlines are pushing for government bailouts, so far mostly without rigorous conditions to cut carbon emissions in return. Higher-paid workers can make the switch to home working most easily: For millions on lower incomes, sitting in front of a screen all day is not an option, and the coronavirus has just erased their jobs. Do we really want to migrate all our work and leisure online?
FURTHER READING
The Conversation: Coronavirus is a once in a lifetime chance to reshape how we travel
Reuters: Coronavirus redraws battle lines on airline emissions
Reuters: Questioning by Zoom: Welcome to Britain's new 'hybrid' parliament
Climate Week NYC: Virtual New York Climate Week to go ahead in September
Collective Action Matters
One person washing their hands won’t stop a pandemic. Everyone has to change their behavior. The same principle holds true for climate change. Like no other experience before it, the pandemic has enrolled the entire world in a real-time demonstration of the importance of collective action for tackling a global crisis.
If anything can be salvaged from the tragedy, then maybe it will be a recognition of the need to come together to address the challenge of transforming the global economy in time to avert the worst projections of climate science. Ideas that might seem like long shots, such as brokering a global treaty to control fossil fuel production modeled on Cold War deals on nuclear weapons, might gain new traction. The vulnerabilities in the global economy laid bare by the virus might encourage companies and governments to "build back better."
The Catch
Rather than collaborating, many governments took unilateral action in their initial response to the pandemic by closing borders or slapping restrictions on exports of medical supplies. Glaring strains were visible even in the European Union, which was built on the memory of the devastation wrought by nationalism. As the impacts of climate change worsen, the temptation will remain for governments to double down on authoritarian, isolationist responses.
FURTHER READING
The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
C2G: What effect could COVID-19 have on the climate policy debate?
Medium: A new superpower in the making: awareness-based collective action
The Conversation: Coronavirus should give us hope that we are able to tackle the climate crisis
CarbonBrief: Coronavirus: What could lifestyle changes mean for tackling climate change?
Greening the Recovery
For now, governments are focused on buffering businesses and workers from the shock of the pandemic. But calls are growing to design longer-term rescue packages to serve climate goals. In Europe, ministers from France, Germany and other countries have called upon the European Union to design its recovery measures to support a Green Deal policy to reduce the bloc’s carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. Japan has referenced a “zero-carbon society” in its response (though details are scant). South Korea has boosted subsidies for renewables.
There is an avalanche of research suggesting that investments in decarbonization can have widespread social and health benefits. With the pandemic coinciding with a period of exceptional volatility in oil markets, might more governments decide to adopt policies to support renewable energy, energy efficiency, research into energy storage and low-carbon transport?
The Catch
So far, government bailouts have shown scant signs of going green: a $2 trillion package in the United States will largely benefit large corporations, which could exacerbate inequality. Many automakers, oil companies and other industries are pushing back on emissions targets, and China approved more new coal plants in the first few weeks of March than in all of 2019, according to Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based nonprofit organization.
FURTHER READING
Thomson Reuters Foundation: Coronavirus should not be exploited to fuel climate emergency
McKinsey & Co: Addressing climate change post-pandemic world
Carbon Tracker: COVID-19 as midwife of the energy transition
Economic Times: India needs a bailout - Can we make it green?
Everyone Is Connected
Somebody falls sick in China, now I can’t buy a roll of toilet paper. While the warnings of climate scientists about the dire consequences of ice caps melting or forests burning on the other side of the world can sound abstract for those not directly affected, the pandemic has touched everyone in some way. Nobody can deny how interconnected we all are.
In societies where discussion of death and dying is virtually taboo, the confrontation with mortality triggered by the pandemic may even foster a more authentic reckoning with the fragility and preciousness of life. When conversations about the threats to planetary ecosystems proceed from such a level of awareness, then it might be possible to have a deeper global conversation about what to do to about the climate and environmental emergency.
The Catch
Nope, turns out everybody on the planet counts.
FURTHER READING
openDemocracy: Our economic system is on life support. But who are we really saving?
Mongabay: Rapid deforestation of Brazilian Amazon could bring next pandemic - experts
Climate Assembly UK: The path to net zero through online video conferencing
Video: Thomas Hübl: Honoring our fear, finding our resilience in a time of crisis
Wisdom Weavers: Indigenous elders say "Listen to your Heart"
This story is a part of Covering Climate Now’s week of coverage focused on climate solutions, to mark the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. Covering Climate Now is a global journalism collaboration committed to strengthening coverage of the climate story.
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